MARKETING ACTUARY

April 2, 2013

RECOVERING FROM ANOTHER COMPUTER BREAKDOWN

April Fools Day was yesterday. Today I’ve got more problems with my Lenovo ThinkPads. I’ve learned and am now better prepared.

My ThinkPad W520 workstation hasn’t been the same since the two repairs last year. The fan keeps running loud and there’s heat even when I’m doing basic things like typing. The internal speakers no longer work (for the second time).

My backup ThinkPad X200 Tablet has a pricey 128 GB SSD that’s defective, according to Windows. (My Dell netbook also has a defective 32 GB SSD but I rarely use it.)

This morning, the W520 refused to start because of an error with some controller. Later, it did start but it’s no longer reliable. None of my computers are.

Data Loss

At least I don’t need to worry about data loss. My key files are in my 61 GB Dropbox (see review), which means I have synchronized copies and archived versions. I use cloud-based services regularly.

I've also got CrashPlan+ Unlimited which backs up to an external hard drive and an online archive (review on about.com, Apr 2013). I’ve got every version of every file available.

The issue is no longer data loss. The issue is reliability. That will require another computer. The problem is deciding which to get.

Which One?

Costco has the best basic warranty (2 years) and return policy (90 days) but the selection is limited. Best Buy, Future Shop and Staples offer more choice but still play the game of having sales instead of great prices everyday. Computer stores have better prices but seem to be tough on returns (might even have restocking fees). Online manufacturers Lenovo and Dell offer choice and customization … but also use the gimmick of sales and delivery takes time if you customize.

The Ideal

The ideal notebook computer would have these features (in no particular order):

lightweight
portable (e.g., 13” or 14” screen)
Windows 8 touchscreen (reduces the need for a tablet)
powerful processor (e.g., Intel Core i7)
lots of memory (minimum of 8 GB, upgradeable to 16 GB)
lots of high-speed storage (e.g., 1 TB at 7200 rpm)
all-day battery (e.g., 8 hours)
nonglare HD screen (900x1600 or 1080x1920)
3 year onsite next-business-day repairs
VGA output (many projectors and monitors lack the newer HDMI inputs)
English (non-bilingual) keyboard
inexpensive

There’s no such choice.

Unless you order a customized computer, you’re stuck with compromises like a 1366x768 screen and a slow hard drive. If you order customized, your computer is a one-off. You wait for delivery and get a less reliable computer. According to a Lenovo repair shop, the most problems are with computers that are CTO (Customized To Order).

There are too many substandard choices … but I need to decide.

Your Clients

How do your clients (current and prospective) feel about what you offer? What’s simple or clear to you may confuse them. Rather than asking for your advice, they may decide to do nothing. Isn’t that a lose/lose?

Links

PS What would you do if your computer became unreliable?

March 26, 2013

THE WRAP ON ‘DECISIVE’, THE NEW BOOK FROM CHIP AND DAN HEATH

Every book by Chip and Dan Heath is worth reading. They’ve show us ways to make messages memorable (Made To Stick) and make difficult changes (Switch). In Decisive, they tackle the way we make decisions.

Decisive goes on sale today. I saw a webinar with Dan Heath yesterday and listened to a podcast with Chris Brogan. I saw Dan on the tour for Switch.

The Decision Process

Here is the four step WRAP process:

Widen your options
Reality-test your assumptions
Add distance before deciding
Prepare to be wrong

We’ll focus on widening options. This is difficult. We have limited time. Considering many choices is a recipe for indecision or substandard decisions. We also suffer from the confirmation bias.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is probably the biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.
— Dan Lovallo

You likely have opinions on

the existence of global warming
the attention spans of kids today
the merits of fluoride in drinking water
the need for guns at home
whether iOS beats Android

We have our world views and find data that supports our thinking. Our blinders impair our thinking and decisions. We might not see what we're not looking for. In a recent Harvard study, 83% of radiologists failed to see a gorilla waving a fist in a stack of CT scans (Toronto Star, Feb 2013).

Thinking “outside the box” isn’t easy when we are the box. One way is to build a diverse network or team and consider differing opinions early in the process.

An Example

I've found there are strong opinions about the merits of social media marketing. For instance, “YouTube is now averaging 1 billion monthly users who are streaming a stunning 4 billion hours of content every month” (Forbes, Mar 21, 2013). Is that a call to create video or remain on the sidelines?

The ROI question also arises. Coca Cola finds that online buzz doesn’t lead to online sales — even now, television is more effective (Ad Age, Mar 18, 2013). That’s a “stunning admission” for the #1 brand on Facebook with 61.5 million fans. What conclusion do you draw? Are the results meaningful for what you sell? Is there a trend?

What we want to believe may not be what what's comfortable or true. For years, we’ve been told to Question Authority. Now it’s time to Question Biases too.

Decide

I’m confident that Decisive will have solid, practical content that’s easy to apply. It’s on my reading list.